Electric Revolution

**SuperHbody** · 09-12-2014

Thought I'd post this here and get thoughts. I recently had a pretty heated discussion with a family member on the future of racing and such and electric cars. His postulation is gas be damned as well as oil companies and anyone connected with it as we're all stealing people's money apparently. Being a young auto tech I was a little annoyed. He further went to say I was stupid for picking a dying industry and will find myself outdated in a few years so I'd better get back into school and get educated on something more useful. That, of course, was the straw that broke the camel's back and it took a turn for the nasty as I berated him for being part of the "green agenda" and crapping on everyone just to satisfy their obsession with saving the planet since it's going to hell every second of every day.

So, I ask the gearhead's here, you think electric cars will completely kill off the internal combustion engine in five years or are we seeing extreme arrogance from that side of the fence?

**Six_Shooter** · 09-12-2014

Electric car kill off gasoline powered cars? Yes.

In five years? Hell no.

Electric power is the way forward, but the battery technology has to improve to completely replace gasoline powered cars.

To be completely truthful, a very high percentage of people that drive cars daily in North America would be able to switch over to an electric car with zero change in their driving habits.

I have a vehicle that is slated for an electric conversion, and technically I've already started on the swap with the complete removal of the drivetrain and most of the fuel system. I just need some of the electric conversion parts.

**SuperHbody** · 09-12-2014

I think it's still a novelty. Maybe 200 miles on a charge? bahhh Just in school I was hearing the development of ceramic engine parts, lasers replacing spark plugs and cam-less engines as the next wave of tech. I certainly could see electrics playing a big role in the cities but I'd probably use public trans anyways as it's super difficult with the traffic. Sorry, just had to vent. The amount of people berating the automotive industry surprises me especially when it gets so personal.

**lionelhutz** · 09-12-2014

With the present state of electric vehicles, there isn't a hope in hell they'll take over in North America any time soon. It won't happen until there the re-charging stations are as common as gas stations. But that will first require that the electric grid is updated to support the re-charging stations. The present grid simply can not support replacing the amount of fuel energy that is trucked and pumped today. And, with people still very willing to pay to fuel their 15mpg SUVs and pickups use, no-one is willing to pay for the $$billions in upgrades required.

**Six_Shooter** · 09-12-2014

Originally Posted by SuperHbody

I think it's still a novelty. Maybe 200 miles on a charge? bahhh Just in school I was hearing the development of ceramic engine parts, lasers replacing spark plugs and cam-less engines as the next wave of tech. I certainly could see electrics playing a big role in the cities but I'd probably use public trans anyways as it's super difficult with the traffic. Sorry, just had to vent. The amount of people berating the automotive industry surprises me especially when it gets so personal.

Electric cars have actually been around longer than gasoline powered cars, so it's definitely not a novelty. ;)

Actually the average is about 70 miles on a charge, but Tesla is over 200 miles to a charge now, which is not very much shorter than an equivalent gasoline powered car. ;)

But here's the thing, people drive an average of 40 miles per day, well under that lower average of 70 miles to a charge. And guess what, you can charge the car EVERY night when you get home, no more trips to the gas station, waiting in line, or need to make sure you fill up before going home, you charge it at home for pennies on the mile, literally. Many people find that they can spend under $10 to charge their cars, while usually driving as many or more miles than with their gasoline counter part.

Those "developments" you've been hearing about in school are not new. Cam-less engines were being made as back as the '60s, if not before, and don't work nearly as well as engines equipped with cams, the only exception being the Koenigsegg direct actuation valves, which up until about 2 years ago (when Koenisegg started development and testing) was not even a plausible option. 2 stroke and reed valve engines not included in this discussion. Ceramic engines while they do work, don't last due to the heat created, oil is still needed to lubricate and cool the engine, at which point the ceramic becomes pointless, detonation is an issue, or pre-ignition more correctly again this has been in development for 50+ years now. The idea of lasers for ignition is not new either, but once you find out what kind of energy is need to actually ignite a fuel and air mix in a combustion chamber, you will see that laser ignition is not anything more than fantasy. Current electronic ignitions are far more efficient.

Electric powered cars ARE the way forward, bar none. There is a single moving part in the engine, less maintenance, less pollution, the "fuel" can be created by any number of means, solar, wind, nuclear, coal, hydro, man on a bike, rats running on a treadmill...

**Six_Shooter** · 09-12-2014

Originally Posted by lionelhutz

With the present state of electric vehicles, there isn't a hope in hell they'll take over in North America any time soon. It won't happen until there the re-charging stations are as common as gas stations. But that will first require that the electric grid is updated to support the re-charging stations. The present grid simply can not support replacing the amount of fuel energy that is trucked and pumped today. And, with people still very willing to pay to fuel their 15mpg SUVs and pickups use, no-one is willing to pay for the $$billions in upgrades required.

But people ARE willing to pay for the infrastructure support for electric vehicles. Look up what Elon Musk is doing for charging stations for the Tesla cars he sells.

The idea that the current grid can not support electric vehicle recharging is a made up idea by oil companies. To recharge a car overnight is about the equivalent of leaving a single 60 watt light on over night, which everyone could do and the current infrastructure wouldn't even flinch. The only part that would put a strain on the current infrastructure are the quick charge stations that take many hundreds of amps at a time to quickly recharge a large bank of batteries.

**SuperHbody** · 09-12-2014

Originally Posted by Six_Shooter

But people ARE willing to pay for the infrastructure support for electric vehicles. Look up what Elon Musk is doing for charging stations for the Tesla cars he sells.

The idea that the current grid can not support electric vehicle recharging is a made up idea by oil companies. To recharge a car overnight is about the equivalent of leaving a single 60 watt light on over night, which everyone could do and the current infrastructure wouldn't even flinch. The only part that would put a strain on the current infrastructure are the quick charge stations that take many hundreds of amps at a time to quickly recharge a large bank of batteries.

I know Six, I live on the west coast. Do you also know those same stations pretty much lay there unused. It isn't some oil company conspiracy, its simple economics. Part of my schooling was spent researching the past and I know electric cars were around than and were popular. But than, as now, infrastructure, practicality and distance are against it. ICE engines will continue to be dominant for a very long time. Whats interesting that every time ICE was declared dead, gas came down or new tech came about and brought costs down. Variable valve, variable displacement were also scoffed at but look at how they have revolutionized the industry.

**roughneck427** · 09-12-2014

Im in Central CA and am employed by a large Utilty Company a majority of our fleet is hybrid even our line trucks and bucket trucks are hybrid to run the hydraulics on the booms. I work on this stuff everyday and dont see in the next 5 years either the bugs are not all worked out for longevity. I will be going to Texas in May to check out the Alternative Clean Transportation Expo. http://www.actexpo.com/

**lionelhutz** · 09-12-2014

Originally Posted by Six_Shooter

To recharge a car overnight is about the equivalent of leaving a single 60 watt light on over night, which everyone could do and the current infrastructure wouldn't even flinch. The only part that would put a strain on the current infrastructure are the quick charge stations that take many hundreds of amps at a time to quickly recharge a large bank of batteries.

60W overnight is completely out to lunch. Did that come from some anti-oil/pro-electric site?

I'm going to use your 40 miles of driving a day and assume a typical electric car's power usage is 200Wh/mile, which is being extremely generous. For 40 miles of driving it will take 200Wh/mile x 40miles / 60W = 133h to re-charge if you charge at your 60W rate. Assuming the over-night charging won't last more than 14 hours, you're off by at least a factor of 10 once the efficiency of the charging is taken into account. You'd need to run at least a 600W bulb to charge overnight when charging for 14 hours. Charging in 10 hours would require >800W or charging in 4 hours would require >2kW.

Just as a sanity check, the Tesla S has a 85kWh battery pack and it's claimed it can go 265 miles on a charge. 85000Wh / 265miles = 320Wh per mile. The Leaf is about 100 miles and 24kWh = 240Wh per mile.

Yet another sanity check from another angle. The Leaf has a 6.6kW charger to charge the 24 kWh battery pack in 4 hours. Hmm, my estimate was 8kWh required 2kW to charge in 4 hours and if you multiply both by 3 you end up at 24kWh and 6kW. The range of the Leaf is about 100 miles so it would actually require around 10kWh of charging per night.

Other estimates have said charging an electric car will typically increase a typical household your electrical usage by about 56%. That would also calculate to much more than a 60W light bulb overnight.

**Six_Shooter** · 09-12-2014

Originally Posted by SuperHbody

I know Six, I live on the west coast. Do you also know those same stations pretty much lay there unused. It isn't some oil company conspiracy, its simple economics. Part of my schooling was spent researching the past and I know electric cars were around than and were popular. But than, as now, infrastructure, practicality and distance are against it. ICE engines will continue to be dominant for a very long time. Whats interesting that every time ICE was declared dead, gas came down or new tech came about and brought costs down. Variable valve, variable displacement were also scoffed at but look at how they have revolutionized the industry.

Yeah, because there are't that many Teslas yet, give it time. Gas stations went through a similar trend when cars were still not owned by everyone. Gas comes down, because gas companies see their billions of sollars of profit dwindle by a few million and know that people will spend more when it's "on sale", has nothing to do with technological "advancements", but simple manipulative economics, that happens in almost every industry or market.

Originally Posted by lionelhutz

60W overnight is completely out to lunch. Did that come from some anti-oil/pro-electric site?

I'm going to use your 40 miles of driving a day and assume a typical electric car's power usage is 200Wh/mile, which is being extremely generous. For 40 miles of driving it will take 200Wh/mile x 40miles / 60W = 133h to re-charge if you charge at your 60W rate. Assuming the over-night charging won't last more than 14 hours, you're off by at least a factor of 10 once the efficiency of the charging is taken into account. You'd need to run at least a 600W bulb to charge overnight when charging for 14 hours. Charging in 10 hours would require >800W or charging in 4 hours would require >2kW.

Just as a sanity check, the Tesla S has a 85kWh battery pack and it's claimed it can go 265 miles on a charge. 85000Wh / 265miles = 320Wh per mile. The Leaf is about 100 miles and 24kWh = 240Wh per mile.

Yet another sanity check from another angle. The Leaf has a 6.6kW charger to charge the 24 kWh battery pack in 4 hours. Hmm, my estimate was 8kWh required 2kW to charge in 4 hours and if you multiply both by 3 you end up at 24kWh and 6kW. The range of the Leaf is about 100 miles so it would actually require around 10kWh of charging per night.

Other estimates have said charging an electric car will typically increase a typical household your electrical usage by about 56%. That would also calculate to much more than a 60W light bulb overnight.

Practical testing > estimates.

Those that are actually using, driving and charging their plug in electric cars, show far less electric use than your "estimates".

**lionelhutz** · 09-12-2014

Originally Posted by Six_Shooter

Practical testing > estimates.

Those that are actually using, driving and charging their plug in electric cars, show far less electric use than your "estimates".

That's pretty much a complete joke of a response.

I've used published data from Tesla and Nissan and done some simple calculations which prove your claim is complete hogwash. Unless of course the homebrew stuff has managed to achieve at least 10X the efficiency of the big players in the EV market. Thanks for that laugh....

**1project2many** · 09-12-2014

That's pretty much a complete joke of a response.

This is a great discussion. Let's remember to keep it civil.

Personally I expect ICE hybrids will be available for many years. Not every drive is limited to 200 mi. Not every trip has available time to wait for recharge overnight. Not every trip will allow driving to and from places with battery exchange stations. While coastal areas with higher population density could benefit from pure electrics, I just don't see it working well in a place where you're 200 miles from town without a personal Mr. Fusion to create power. Finally, I wonder what's going to end up being produced as a result of the search for better batteries. Humans are great at making chemicals that are toxic to life and we don't do a great job of disposing of used batteries now. What are we likely to make in the future?

I want to build an electric to drive to work. I've got a 45 mile trip into town and that would be a good test. I've got plans and I've figured out what I need but I can't afford the components necessary to do the swap. When I do a cost comparison I can buy plenty of fuel for the price of those parts. So I definitely don't see electric in my future. Right now I'm experimenting with diesels. Our '03 TDI is getting 50mpg.

**steveo** · 09-12-2014

it's true, just moving electric power from a central source over wire is kind of silly. the loss of energy during transmission is too high, and if every tiny bit of energy required for all of our transportation needs has to come over copper.. wow. if you think that's happening, you dont realize how much energy is used for global transportation. that's an incredible amount of energy transmission, new power plants, and a lot of new lines.

in the distant future we really need safe micro nuclear generators. im sure we could make nuclear scale down. exchange your car's reactor once a year or so when the safety tag expires.

either that or exchangable, standarized, modular fuel cells of some other 'storage' method with a good shelf life. this battery thing just isn't going to fly, imo.

i really think hydrogen needs to be explored a bit more too; we have an infinite supply of it for energy storage, and you can either make fuel cells for electric power, or just burn it oldschool with pistons, even retrofitting existing gasoline engines. it's very stable and safe in a container designed for it (safe as propane anyway?), and it's trivial to farm hydrogen by generating electricity.

done right, it could replace the entire fossil fuel infrastructure..ships, planes, heavy trucks, the works.

but you never know, i'm no scientist